As of February 12, 2020 the Minnesota Vikings are $11.36 Million over the cap. That means that a team that desperately needs improvement to be able to compete for a Super Bowl will have trouble doing so. In order to have a successful offseason, we need to look at where they will be able to save money and who will need to be kept, let go or resigned. In order to attack this offseason the right way, Rick Spielman and the Vikings ownership need to take a deep dive into their roster and make a decision – Do we run it back with this nucleus or do we prepare for the future? It is not a popular opinion, but I think this team has too many holes and not enough assets to fix those holes to compete for a lombardi trophy. It is time to take a smart and methodical approach to a rebuild for the Minnesota Vikings. I’m not saying it has to be as dramatic as the one the Miami Dolphins are in, but it means that they need to look at each player and each position and ask themselves “will this guy, at this price, be able to help this team 2+ years down the road?”
That starts with cutting dead weight on the team. Minnesota has a tendency to love players that have been great in the past and has trouble severing those relationships, so this could be easier said than done for them. I would start with Cornerback Xavier Rhodes. Rhodes was incredible a few seasons ago and rightfully so landed a fat contract. He has digressed immensely since, his PFF grade this year was a horrid 47.9 good for 107th out of qualifying corners. Cutting Rhodes would save the Vikings $8.1 million. Yes they are thin at corner already and Waynes and Alexander are set to hit the open market but Rhodes is simply a below grade corner now being paid like an elite one. Can’t have that.
I would then look at the offensive line for cap savings. Another position of need with a highly overpaid former solid play. That man is Left Tackle Riley Reiff, cutting him would save $8.8 million. In his age 31 season he had a not terrible PFF grade of 69.5. Unfortunately that was second best on the vikings line but he is simply not good enough to justify his cap hit. Given his age, he’s not getting any better and up and coming tackle Brian O’Neill can take a shot at the blind side.
Next up are two fan favorites, and it kills me to say the vikings should get rid of these guys but in the interest of the future of the team, the Vikings should cut Linval Joseph and Everson Griffen. Cutting these guys would save the Vikings $10.55 million and $13.1 million respectively. Joseph took a step back this season and his skillset is limited. It is hard to justify, in today’s NFL, taking an almost $13 million cap hit on a defensive tackle with limited pass rushing ability. He was 42nd in terms of PFF grade for eligible DT’s this season, it is simply time to let a youngster take some snaps there. Cutting Griffen comes from the Belichik train of thought, get rid of a guy a year too early instead of a year too late. Griffen was still a threat to get to the QB this year and will be valuable again as a situational rusher the next year or two. But I think his talent is deteriorating and Ifeadi Odenigbo had 1 less sack than Griffen while playing 481 less snaps. Odenigbo will be able to fill Griffen’s role. He may not be able to excel in it but he will make it so the Vikings don’t miss his production too much. His leadership will be greatly missed although.
After 4 cuts of aging, deteriorating players we now sit at $29.19 million in cap space. That’s a lot better but we still have players about to hit the market and big holes to fill. In my opinion that almost $30 million (along with the draft) needs to be used to get 2 more corners, a safety, at least 2 offensive lineman, a receiver, a pass rusher and potentially a quarterback. That $30 million doesn’t seem like much now, does it? Now I don’t know fully how trading works with cap numbers but just looking at the team there are two trade targets that stick out to me right away. Kyle Rudolph and Josh Kline. Rudolph is carrying a cap hit of $8.8 million while Kline’s is $6 million. I picked Rudolph because, while I still believe he is a top 15 TE in the league and made the biggest catch of the season this year, Irv Smith is the future for the TE position in Minnesota. He proved he can be explosive and better blocking than expected. He will excel in an expanded role and quite frankly makes Rudolph expendable. Rudolph has 4 years left on his deal and his cap savings grow as the years go, so lets say a team with cap takes a flyer for a 5th or 6th round pick on him. I think Kline could be gone as well just because he simply is an average offensive lineman who can be replaced quite easily with any guard the Vikings can find for the cheap in the draft or a mid tier free agent. He has 2 years left with his contract and will without a doubt be cut by whoever has him next year because then he will have a cap savings of $5 million. So, once again, lets say a cap wealthy team trades a 6th or 7th round pick for him.
We now sit at $44 million in space and can start looking at internal free agents. The Vikings are set to lose quite a few of players that come with tough decisions. Anthony Harris, Trae Waynes, Mackensie Alexander, Jayron Kearse, Dan Bailey, CJ Ham, Britton Colquitt and Stephen Weatherly. Yes, this means the Vikings will only have one corner and one safety on the roster. Anthony Harris was tied for the league lead with picks last year with 6 and graded as the best safety by PFF so I’m resigning him first. Yes, you can debate if Harrison Smith helped make him great and his worth but the Vikings haven’t had a ball hawking turnover causing defender in a while. So when there’s one in your building, you keep him. PFF projects his contract to be 4years/$56 million. So we’ll say Rick works that cap hit to be around $10 million. Ouch. But it had to be done. Dan Bailey was awesome this year so lets give him a deal that results in a $2.5 million hit. CJ Ham gets $1.5 million, Colquitt gets $1.5 million. So now we’re at $28.5 million with only 1 corner. PFF is projecting to be able to get Mackensie Alexander for 3years/$12 million. we’ll do that and now are sitting with $24.5 million. Time to hit free agency.
OvertheCap projects the Vikings rookies to take up $8.2 million in cap space. So we only have $16.3 million to use. We still need a corner, at least 2 lineman, a receiver, a defensive lineman and a quarterback. We can get 2-3 of those in the draft at a minimum, so lets look at free agency and try to lock up 3 guys we can use. I naturally gravitate towards lineman like Scherff, Castonzo and Thuney but all those guys are coming with a projected hit of $10-$12 million which we simply cannot afford. So for a lineman we go bargain bin hunting and find Connor McGovern. He played Center for the Broncos and had a PFF grade of 71.9 in 2019, good for 11th among qualifying centers. Plus he’ll be 27 when the season starts, so he will still get better. We can get him for a $2 million cap hit this year on a 2-3 year deal. So now we sit at $14.3 million with a goal of two spots to fill. We lost Linval Joseph and now are missing out on our man in the middle. Enter Andrew Billings. He’ll be 25 entering the season so he has a good 3-5 years left in him, he will be relatively cheap and had a decent PFF grade of 69.3 last year. He won’t be an every down guy, but that’s not what we are looking for. Another guy we can get for about $2 million. Next I’m looking at corner and see that the 9th overall rated corner is sitting there and I can get him for $7.5 million a year. Brian Poole has been a slot guy his whole career and will most likely stay there. Mackensie Alexander has been lobbying to play outside corner since the day he was drafted. Picking up Poole allows Alexander to get his wish while still keeping a good corner in the slot. The Vikings can now go out there with Mike Hughes, Mackensie Alexander and Brian Poole at corner. Not great but that is a high potential lineup with these guys only aging 23, 26 and 27. We now have about $5 million to play with. The Vikings have arguably the best receiving duo in the league with Diggs and Thielen but after that there isn’t rally much. Bisi Johnson showed promise but isn’t quite there yet. So let’s get Danny Amendola, PFF is projecting $4 million 1 year deal for him. We now have a legit slot guy and he helps give this team some depth at receiver.
After free agency, we are looking at the draft with the 25th pick, still looking for a lineman, quarterback and probably corner and pass rusher. If I’m the Vikings I am looking at Kirk Cousins and thinking he’s good enough this year but I don’t know about the future. Cousins is the type of QB that is awesome when everything around him is perfect but he is unable to raise the play of his team when things aren’t perfect. I cannot continue to pay $30+ million for a guy that does that. So I let him play out this next year, draft his successor, have him sit for a year and clap when Kirk’s $31 million come off the books next year. I think I can get Jordan Love in the first round, but just in case I like Jake Fromm in the second round. Let’s assume we can’t get Love and take Jake Fromm in the second round. What do we do in the first round? I would take an offensive lineman. It doesn’t matter how good an offense is, if the line sucks then nothing can go. The Vikings have shown that year after year so I continue the line investment with Josh Jones a tackle out of Houston. I may have to move up to get him but I need to shore up that position on the field. With my 3rd round pick (if I still have it) I would go for a defensive lineman.
The last question to answer for this offseason is Dalvin Cook. He deserves a new deal and to be paid like a top running back in the league. But I can’t be the team to do it. Yes, the Vikings are built off the run and yes if we don’t sign him he will hold out. But I cannot rationalize paying a running back $14+ million a year, especially when he hasn’t been able to play 14 healthy games yet in his career. The NFL is a copy cat league, name the most recent team to win a super bowl who had a marquee running back. Struggling? Me too. You could argue the Seahawks in 2014 but that was the defense. Maybe the Ravens in 2001? Also defense. Got it, the Rams in 2000 with Marshall Faulk. But they also had Warner, Holt and Bruce. So there is why I cannot pay a top running back in the league.
I would like to revisit this blog once the offseason is over and compare what happened to what I would have done. I will then write about who had the better offseason, the 2020 Minnesota Vikings or My Imaginary Vikings Team That I Control.
NFL by The Common Man 